Notes on tracking, variance and study.
Writing for serious live players. No hype, no win-rate promises, just the maths and the habits that compound.
What this blog is for
The blog is the public version of the Overshove review loop: track the session, respect the sample, find the leak, make one cleaner decision next time. Most pieces start with a poker number because a vague feeling is not enough to move stakes, stop a session, or decide whether a downswing is normal.
Read the variance posts when your graph is trying to talk you into panic. Read the session-tracking posts when the sample has holes. Read the study posts when the same mistake keeps showing up in different clothes.
Why your win rate is a fiction
Rake, tips and travel quietly halve a small-stakes win rate. Most trackers only capture buy-in and cash-out, so the number you trust is gross, not true.
Read →How deep is a normal downswing?
A perfectly normal downswing is deeper than your gut expects. Why winners endure multi-buy-in losing stretches, and how to know your number in advance.
Read →The hour-four decline
Most live losses come from time spent in your C-game late in long sessions. The case for a stop-clock, not just a stop-loss.
Read →Logging live without being that guy
You can capture a session at the table without slowing the game or drawing attention. A fast, quiet logging routine for live cash.
Read →Reading the same faces
Your live edge is partly a notebook. Why a structured set of reads on your local pool compounds, and how to stop re-learning the same station every week.
Read →