Move-up readiness calculator

What does this result mean?

A move-up readiness calculator translates your current bankroll into buy-ins at the next stake, then estimates the risk of ruin there from your win rate and standard deviation. It answers the bankroll part of moving up, not whether you are technically or emotionally ready for the tougher game. A larger stake can turn a comfortable roll into a thin one immediately, even when the cash balance has not changed. Use conservative performance inputs and treat a short hot run as unproven. If the result shows too few buy-ins or an unacceptable risk, keep building at the current stake. If the bankroll gate clears, separate a shot from a permanent move: set a fixed shot budget, a drop-back point and a review date before sitting. A lasting move still needs evidence that your decisions and edge survive the new pool.

How to use the answer responsibly

Treat the calculator as a planning tool, not a verdict on one session. A live poker input is usually an estimate: your win rate is noisy, your standard deviation changes by game type, and your future volume rarely matches the clean number you type into a form. The useful habit is to save the assumptions beside the result so you know what would need to change before the decision changes.

If the result pushes against what you wanted to do, do not smooth the inputs until the answer feels nicer. Make the conservative version first, using a lower win rate, a higher swing rate or fewer weekly hours. Then run the optimistic version. The space between those answers is the real decision area: where a shot needs a stop rule, where a move up needs more buy-ins, or where a good-looking hourly still needs a bigger sample.

Overshove calculators become more useful when the inputs come from your own logged sessions. Rake, tips, travel, hours, stake mix and session length all change the number. A generic benchmark can teach the shape of the problem, but a clean personal log gives the number you should actually act on.