Guides for players who study.
No win-rate promises. Just the metrics that matter, the maths behind variance, and the habits that turn sessions into improvement.
Use a poker book as an argument to examine.
Separate arithmetic that travels between games from assumptions that need fresh evidence.
Nathan Williams’s Crushing the Microstakes is presented by its author primarily for low-stakes online games, with live-game recommendations too. That makes its intended audience useful context, not evidence that every recommendation transfers unchanged to your live table.
| Kind of claim | What travels | What to recheck |
|---|---|---|
| Arithmetic | Pot price, card removal and stack calculations | Definitions, known cards, rake and remaining stacks |
| Opponent behaviour | A hypothesis you can examine | Current game, available observations and selection bias |
| Results or win rates | A description of the stated sample | Format, period, costs, sample selection and uncertainty |
In a live session, reconstructed hands and time records may be incomplete. In an online hand history, recorded actions can be more precise, but precision of the log does not prove the range estimate. Neither format makes a historical result a forecast.
Read a strategic recommendation alongside its stated conditions, then write a new example to test the logic. The worked notes on these pages provide arithmetic and explicit assumptions; they are not substitutes for the books or endorsements by their authors.
Sources and method
- Nathan Williams: author description and intended audienceUsed only for the book’s title and stated audience. The comparison and evaluation framework above are independent Overshove commentary.
- PokerStars Learn: pot oddsA public explanation of the arithmetic, independently illustrated in Overshove’s examples.
Fresh Overshove writing and examples. Numbers are illustrative, independently calculated and not player records. No quoted book text, copied hand, range chart or artwork.
Where should a live player start?
Start with the record. A useful session history needs the date, venue, game, stake, buy-in, cash-out and duration for every session, including the losses you would rather forget. Add direct costs when you want an hourly that reflects what poker actually paid. Check that the total reconciles before using a graph to make a decision.
Then read the bankroll and variance guides. Bankroll rules are written before a shot or downswing so the latest result cannot rewrite them. Variance explains why a long run can still leave a wide range around the true win rate. Neither subject offers one buy-in count or one hour threshold that fits every player.
Finish with the study and leak material. Mark the hands and decisions that created uncertainty, group repeated mistakes and choose one observable action for the next session. The aim is not to consume every guide. It is to connect a real record with a smaller, better decision.
What do these guides not prove?
Worked examples illustrate the maths and state their assumptions. They do not prove your edge, predict a bankroll path or guarantee that a stop-loss changes long-run profit. Use your own complete data, keep unknowns visible and treat small samples as directional. Overshove is a tracking and review tool, not financial advice, a solver or a promise of poker results.
Position and opening ranges for live 1/2 and 2/5 cash games
Which hands to open from each seat in a nine-handed live cash game, how big to raise at 1/2 and 2/5, and when to change the chart. With a range chart.
Read →How to play against limpers in live cash games
When to raise, over-limp or fold against limpers in live cash, how big to raise, and what it does to the price and stack-to-pot ratio. With a calculator.
Read →The straddle: how it changes a live cash game
What a straddle does to stacks, pot sizes and hand values in live cash, how to adjust your ranges, and why small pairs lose value. With a set-mining check.
Read →3-betting in live cash games: which hands, how big and when to bluff
Which hands to 3-bet in live cash, how big to make it in and out of position, when a bluff 3-bet works and how to play facing one. With a calculator.
Read →Defending the blinds in live cash games
The price the blinds get against a raise in live cash, which hands to call or 3-bet against each seat, and how to play after the flop. With a range chart.
Read →Poker variance, standard deviation and risk
Understand poker variance, standard deviation, EV-adjusted results, risk of ruin and the difference between running bad and playing badly.
Read →Poker downswings, stop-loss rules and recovery
Estimate downswing depth and duration, use stop-loss rules properly, recognise session-length decline and build a practical recovery routine.
Read →