What does this result mean?
A bubble factor above one means losses weigh more heavily per chip than gains; a positive risk premium raises the call threshold above the chip-EV price.
Bubble factor and risk premium calculator
Updated October 2026 · by Tom Howcroft
Convert externally calculated ICM losses and gains into a threshold. Free, no account. See the formula, assumptions and editable inputs.
£200
£100
50%
2.0
Bubble factor
66.7%
ICM-adjusted break-even equity
16.7
Risk premium, percentage points
Example
The example inputs below are hypothetical. Change them to inspect your own study scenario. Compare scenarios with the same chip price but different prize-equity consequences to isolate payout pressure.
Estimates for study and planning only, not a profit promise. Overshove tracks your real sample so these inputs come from your own data.
How to use the answer responsibly
Treat the calculator as a planning tool, not a verdict on one session. A live poker input is usually an estimate: your win rate is noisy, your standard deviation changes by game type, and your future volume rarely matches the clean number you type into a form. The useful habit is to save the assumptions beside the result so you know what would need to change before the decision changes.
If the result pushes against what you wanted to do, do not smooth the inputs until the answer feels nicer. Make the conservative version first, using a lower win rate, a higher swing rate or fewer weekly hours. Then run the optimistic version. The space between those answers is the real decision area: where a shot needs a stop rule, where a move up needs more buy-ins, or where a good-looking hourly still needs a bigger sample.
Overshove calculators become more useful when the inputs come from your own logged sessions. Rake, tips, travel, hours, stake mix and session length all change the number. A generic benchmark can teach the shape of the problem, but a clean personal log gives the number you should actually act on.
Questions
What formula does this tool use?
Use actual prize-equity loss L and gain G from the same call scenario. Required win equity = L / (L + G). Bubble factor normalises prize loss per chip lost against prize gain per chip won: (L / G) × (1 - chip threshold) / chip threshold. Risk premium is required win equity minus chip threshold. The separate ICM decision tool can calculate L and G from full stack states.
Is this tool free and does it require an account?
It runs in your browser for free with no account. The result is a study calculation under the stated assumptions, not a recommendation to play or a promise of winnings.