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Correlated PKO and mystery-bounty variance

Model whole tournament paths with progressive bounties and a finite mystery pool, preserving correlations between players. Free, with no account or external AI service.

Complete tournament policy: every remaining player is all-in on every future hand. All hands use real random Hold'em deals and side pots until one champion remains. This intentionally aggressive policy is not an optimal or predicted tournament strategy. It jointly tracks every stack, located bounty, knockout, prize and remaining envelope. Work-limit failures return an error, never an ICM replacement for unfinished bounty play.

The remainder of each eliminated bounty transfers to covering winners. A tied knockout splits both parts. The winner collects their own accumulated bounty. A short stack cannot collect a surviving larger player's bounty. Simultaneous eliminations rank by chips at the start of that hand; equal starting stacks split the corresponding prizes. Odd chips go clockwise from the dealer.

A mystery draw happens only for an eligible victim and if the phase is active at the start of the hand. Each award removes a uniformly chosen envelope without replacement. Chopped knockouts split one envelope. Undrawn envelopes remain unawarded and are reported separately; the champion does not automatically receive them in this model. Enter zero-valued envelopes if your actual inventory includes them. This does not model an operator-specific final unused-envelope redistribution.

Enter the stated game or contract, then calculate.

Rules and methods

Links describe the underlying concepts and operator rules. Our explicit models, bounds and policies are listed in the calculator; no equivalence to another vendor's software is claimed.