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Tournament variance and bankroll simulator

Simulate tournament results from your own payout probabilities, including fees, re-entries and a finite bankroll.

Each row is gross payout, probability percent. Include a zero-return outcome and any bounty returns. Probabilities must total 100. This must describe the full event after all fixed re-entries. The model charges the full cost before entering, and stops if it cannot be funded.

A cash-game normal curve is not used here. Your supplied payout probabilities drive every result. At most two million event draws run per calculation.

Method and assumptions

Each completed event independently draws one gross return from your explicit distribution. Event cost is (buy-in plus fee) times (one plus fixed re-entries). A series stops entering when it cannot fund the next full event cost. The ruin figure means failure to fund a scheduled entry, not infinite-horizon ruin. Bounties must be included in gross returns. Probabilities and fixed re-entry counts are assumptions, not inferred skill.

These are scenarios and recorded results, not predictions or a promise of winnings. No AI is used. Inputs are not uploaded or saved; export them before leaving. Practise between sessions and check your provider's rules.